Evaluación de los pronósticos hechos para los Altos Mirandinos
| día |
Mes |
Año |
t
max (C) medida |
hora max |
pron. max (C) |
error max (C) |
t
min (C) medida |
hora min |
pron. min (C) |
error min (C) |
lluvia
(mm) medida |
pron. (mm) día/noche |
pron.
% día/noche |
éxito/fracaso global día/noche |
pronóstico
default GFS |
| 12 |
12 |
6 |
17 | 15 | sin GFS | ||||||||||
| 13 |
21.3 |
1:58PM |
19 | +2.3 |
13.7 |
5:22AM |
15 | -1.3 |
0 |
30 | sin GFS | ||||
| 14 |
17.7 |
3:43PM |
19 |
-1.3C |
14.6 |
2:52AM |
15 |
-0.4 |
3.0 |
- |
30 |
sin GFS | |||
| 15 |
21.8 |
4:08PM |
23 |
-1.2C |
15 |
4:52AM |
14 |
-1.0 |
0.2 |
- |
- |
sin GFS | |||
| 16 |
21 |
15 |
16 |
30 |
sin GFS |
||||||||||
| 16 |
20.9 |
21 |
-0.1 |
16.5 |
16 |
+0.5 |
0.4/ |
20/30 |
GFS |
||||||
| 17 |
21.7 |
21 |
+0.7 |
15.4 |
16 |
-0.6 |
20/- |
GFS | |||||||
| 18 |
21.2 |
25 |
-3.8 |
15.4 |
15 |
+0.4 |
---/0.2 |
-/<0.2 |
-/20 |
GFS | |||||
| 19 |
23.4 |
22 |
+1.4 |
15.6 |
16 |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
<0.2/ |
30/ |
GFS | |||||
| 20 |
22.7 |
26 |
+3.3 |
16.3 |
16 |
+0.3 |
-/- |
-/- |
GFS | ||||||
| 21 |
20.1 |
22 |
-1.9 |
16.0 |
15 |
+1.0 |
7.4/ |
30/30 |
GFS | ||||||
| 22 |
21.4 |
21 |
+0.4 |
15.9 |
15 |
+0.9 |
0/ |
20/20 | GFS | ||||||
| 23 |
19.8 |
20 |
-0.2 |
15.5 |
15 |
+0.3 |
3/ |
30/30 | GFS | ||||||
| 24 |
20.6 |
20 |
+0.6 |
15.6 |
15 |
+0.6 |
30/40 | GFS | |||||||
| 25 |
20.8 |
21 |
+0.2 |
15 |
15 |
0.0 |
0/0 |
<2/<2 |
GFS | ||||||
| 26 |
22.1 |
20 |
+2.1 |
16 |
14 |
+2.0 |
0/1 |
<2/<2 |
20/20 |
GFS | |||||
| 27 |
20.6 |
22 |
-1.4 |
15 |
15 |
0.0 |
0.2/0 |
<2/- |
20/- |
GFS | |||||
| 28 |
21.6 |
23 |
+1.4 |
14.9 |
16 |
-1.1 |
--/0.2 |
-/- |
-/- |
GFS | |||||
| 29 |
21.7 |
24 |
+2.3 |
14.9 |
13 |
-1.9 |
0/0 |
-/- |
-/- |
GFS | |||||
| 30 |
22.7 |
24 |
+1.3 |
15.6 |
15 |
+0.6 |
0/0 |
-/- |
-/- |
GFS | |||||
| 31 |
25 |
21 |
+4.0 |
15.7 |
14 |
+1.7 |
0.2/0 |
5-10/<2 |
80/- |
GFS + frente |
|||||
| 1 |
1 |
7 |
20.4 |
3:18PM |
22 |
-1.4 |
15 |
6:39AM |
15 |
0.0 |
0/0 |
-/<2 |
-/20 |
GFS | |
| 2 |
20.7(20.2) |
3:09PM |
21 |
+0.3 |
15 (15.2) |
21:20PM |
14 |
0.0 |
0.2/0 |
<2/<2 |
40/30 |
GFS | |||
| 3 |
19.8 |
1:31PM |
22 |
+2.2 |
15 (14.0) |
7:24AM |
15 |
0.0 |
0/0 |
-/<2 |
-/20 |
GFS | |||
| 4 |
19.9 |
1:07PM |
22 |
+2.1 |
13.3 |
6:10AM |
14 |
-0.7 |
0/0 |
<2/- |
-/- |
GFS | |||
| 5 |
20.7 |
2:28PM |
23 |
+2.3 |
13.9 |
3:44AM |
14 |
0.1 |
0/0 |
-/- |
-/- |
GFS | |||
| 6 |
20.4 |
2:11PM |
22 |
+1.6 |
13.1 |
4:12AM |
14 |
-0.9 |
0/0 |
<2/- |
-/- |
GFS | |||
| 7 |
20.5 | 3:00PM | 20 |
+0.5 | 13.7 | 3:43AM | 12 | +1.7 | 0/0 |
-/- |
-/- |
GFS | |||
| 8 |
21.7 |
3:06PM |
23 |
1.3 |
13.5 |
2:31AM |
14 |
+0.5 |
0.2/0 |
<2/<2 |
-/- |
GFS | |||
| 9 |
21.3 |
4:31PM |
22 |
+0.7 |
15.7 |
12:39AM |
13 |
+1.7 |
0/0 |
<2/<2 |
30/30 |
GFS | |||
| 10 |
21.4 |
2:27PM |
18 |
+3.4 |
16.6 |
5:21AM |
14 |
+2.6 |
0.2/0 |
5-10/5 |
70/60 |
GFS | |||
| 11 |
18.9 |
12:10PM |
18 |
+0.9 |
15.3 |
7:18AM |
15 |
+0.3 |
6.2/0 |
10/2 |
80/50 |
GFS | |||
| 12 |
17.9 |
12:53PM |
17 |
+0.9 |
15.8 |
4:07AM |
13 |
+2.8 |
4.4/0 |
2-5/2 |
50/20 |
GFS | |||
| 13 |
18.6 |
10:47AM |
20 |
-1.4 |
15.6 |
12:00AM |
14 |
+1.6 |
4.6/0 |
10/<2 |
60/30 |
GFS* | |||
| 14 |
20.4 |
2:44PM |
20 |
+0.4 |
15.2 |
12:59AM | 13 |
2.2 |
0/0 |
2/<2 |
40/30 |
GFS
+ advencion |
|||
| 15 |
20.0 |
15:23PM |
20 |
0.0 |
15 |
8:01AM |
15 |
0.0 |
0/0.2 |
2/<2 |
20/20 |
GFS
+ advencion completa |
|||
| 16 |
18.8 |
12:57PM |
20 |
-1.2C |
15.4 |
6:43AM |
14 |
+1.4 |
1.6/0.2 |
2-5/<2 |
50/20 |
GFS
+ advencion completa |
|||
| 17 |
21.5 |
2:53PM |
19 |
+2.5 |
15.0 |
2:17AM |
14 |
+1.0 |
0.2/0.2 |
<2/<2 |
30/40 |
GFS
+ advencion completa (+SYNOPS) |
|||
| 18 |
21.3 |
13:33PM |
21 |
+0.3C |
13.7 |
7:19AM |
14 |
+0.3 |
0.2 |
<2/<2 |
20/20 |
" 9 días |
|||
| 19 |
21.3 |
13:34PM |
22 |
+0.7 |
13.3
|
4:30AM |
14 |
+0.7 |
0.4 |
<2/0 |
20/0 |
" | |||
| 20 |
22.7 |
15:42PM |
21 |
+1.7 |
14.0 |
3:38AM |
14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
<2/0 |
20/0 |
" | |||
| 21 |
20.6 |
11:40AM |
20 |
+0.6 |
13.4 |
5:30AM |
14 |
+0.7 |
0.2 |
<2/<2 |
30/30 |
" | |||
| 22 |
22.1 |
15:13PM |
21 |
+1.1 |
14.6 |
0:01AM |
15 |
+0.4 |
0.0 |
<2/<2 |
0/0 |
" | |||
| 23 |
21.7 |
16:02PM |
19 |
+1.7 |
14.6 |
14 |
+0.6 |
0.2 |
<2/0 |
20/0 |
" | ||||
| 24 |
22.6 |
16:31PM |
22 |
+0.6 |
14.7 |
7:33AM |
15 |
+0.3 |
0.0 |
0/<2 |
0/0 |
GFS
+ advencion completa |
Evaluacion de los pronósticos
hechos con el modelo GFS desde el 16/12/2006 hasta el 14/1/2007 para un
total de 30 dias:
| Temperatura |
exitos error < 0.5C | exitos error
< 1C |
exitos error
< 2C |
exitos error
<3C |
| Temperatura máxima: | 6 (20%) |
11 (37%) |
20 (67%) | 26 (87%) |
| Temperatura mínima: | 14 (47%) |
22 (55%) |
27
(90%) |
30 (100%) |
| exitos | |
| Precipitación |
19 (63%) |
| día |
Mes |
Año |
t
max (C) medida |
pron. max (C) |
error max (C) |
t
min (C) medida |
pron. min (C) |
error min (C) |
lluvia
(mm) medida |
pron. (mm) |
error mm |
pronóstico:
default GFS + datos regionales |
| 25 |
1 |
2007 |
22.6 |
21.1 |
+1.5 |
14.7 |
14.1 |
+0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
+
radiosonda |
| 26 |
24.3 |
22.3 |
+2.0 |
14.3 |
13.5 |
+0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
completo |
||
| 27 |
22.3 |
20.8 |
+1.5 |
15.0 |
16.2 |
-1,2 |
0.0 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
" | ||
| 28 |
23.3 |
21.8 | +1.5 |
15.0 |
14.7 |
+0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
" | ||
| 29 |
23.8 |
15.0 |
0.0 |
" | ||||||||
| 30 |
" | |||||||||||
| 31 |
" |